But what on the surface looks like contrarianism isn't. It's just folks conforming to different groups, some slightly less popular than others, all deluded in their own unique ways.

The problem is that pretend contrarianism is fun. I remember what it felt like to read Taleb's Black Swan before I knew much about the subject: everyone's a stupid wuss except Taleb, and of course me, since I bought his book.

I was stupid enough to buy Antifragile too before I realized that this guy is nothing more than a poet of probability. (And a mean one.)

Seeking Alpha